Forecast vs. Actual Revenue

What is Forecast vs. Actual Revenue?

This metric tracks the difference between what your team predicted it would close and what it actually closed in a given time period (usually monthly or quarterly).

Formula:

Variance = Forecasted Revenue − Actual Revenue

You can calculate it as:

• A dollar value (e.g., forecasted $1.2M, actual $950K → variance = -$250K)
• A percentage variance (e.g., actual/forecast = 79%, or 21% below forecast)

Example: If your team forecasted $800K in Q2 revenue and closed $860K, you beat forecast by $60K, or +7.5%.

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Why It Matters in B2B SaaS

• It drives executive confidence. Accurate forecasts support headcount, budgets, and investor trust
• It reflects sales discipline. Frequent misses often point to stage mislabeling or rep overconfidence
• It helps finance plan cash flow. ARR predictability reduces risk and improves strategic planning
• It informs pipeline health. Over-forecasting may mean you’re counting on shaky late-stage deals
• It helps train reps and managers. Reviewing forecast vs. actual data sharpens forecasting instincts

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How to Measure Forecasted vs. Actual Revenue

Step 1: Pull forecasted revenue for a set time period (from CRM or forecasting tool)

Step 2: Pull actual closed-won revenue from the same period

Step 3: Calculate the dollar and/or percentage variance

Step 4: Segment by:

• Sales team or territory
• Deal type (new logo vs. expansion)
• Forecast category (commit, best case, pipeline)
• Sales manager or rep

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Best Practices

• Use weighted forecasting. Assign probabilities to each stage to reduce bias
• Review commit vs. pipeline accuracy. How often are “committed” deals slipping?
• Align with RevOps. Ensure forecasting inputs are standardized across teams
• Debrief misses. If you’re consistently over or under, conduct root-cause analysis
• Integrate with sales coaching. Forecasting is a skill—track how close each rep’s forecast is to actual